Treasury estimates $800 billion in privately held net marketable borrowing for January–March 2027

The U.S. Treasury Department released new federal borrowing estimates on Nov. 2, 2026, ahead of its quarterly refunding announcement on Nov. 4. Treasury said it expects to borrow $800 billion in privately held net marketable debt in January–March 2027. It also reported that it borrowed $742 billion in July–September 2026.

The borrowing figures

The release covers estimates of privately held net marketable borrowing for the October–December 2026 and January–March 2027 quarters, Treasury said. For October–December, it put the figure at $618 billion, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. That is $10 billion lower than its August estimate.

For January–March, Treasury's $800 billion estimate assumes an end-of-March cash balance of $1.000 trillion. For July–September, Treasury said it ended the quarter with a cash balance of $984 billion.

Treasury also said that, excluding the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current-quarter borrowing estimate is $24 billion higher than the one announced in August.

Treasury said more financing details will come in the quarterly refunding release at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026.

Treasury's economy statement

Treasury also published an economy statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. In it, Treasury said the private sector has added 634,000 net new jobs since December 2025. It said federal payrolls held at about 2.68 million workers, down from 3.01 million in January 2025. It put the private-sector layoffs rate at 1.2% in August.

Treasury's statement also says real weekly wages have grown since the President's inauguration. This is Treasury's own characterization, and the sources reviewed did not include an independent test of it.

A separate report on inflation and wages

NBC News reported on Oct. 14 that the Bureau of Labor Statistics said prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier in September. NBC also reported that wage growth was pacing at 3% annually as of September, and that paychecks have not grown faster than inflation since March.

Treasury's statement refers to real weekly wages since the inauguration. NBC's report refers to annual wage growth and inflation as of September. The two cover different measures and time frames.

What we don't know yet

• The full financing details, which Treasury said will come in the Nov. 4 quarterly refunding release.
• How Treasury's statement on real weekly wages fits with NBC's report of 3% wage growth against 3.7% inflation. The sources use different measures and time frames, and this article does not reconcile them.
• Whether independent data confirm Treasury's description of real weekly wages since the inauguration.