AP analysis finds more than 43 million early votes; a University of Florida tracker counts nearly 50 million

An Associated Press analysis published Oct. 30 found that more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots ahead of the 2026 midterms. AP said that is nearly 10 million more than in 2022. A separate tally from the University of Florida Election Lab, reported by CBS News, put the number at 49,564,545 as of Friday evening.

The AP count

AP said early voting is significantly outpacing the last midterm, with sharp increases in states hosting competitive Senate races. Its figures cover 47 states and Washington, D.C. The 2022 comparison covers 48 states and D.C.

In Texas, AP reported more than 6.3 million early votes as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point four years ago, a 50% increase.

In states that report party affiliation, about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans had voted early, AP said. AP noted that this does not cover all early voters and does not show which candidates received the votes. Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority.

The University of Florida count

CBS, citing the University of Florida Election Lab, reported the 49.56 million total as of Friday evening. It said about 26.8 million were in-person early votes and about 22.9 million were returned mail ballots. CBS said the lab's data does not include New Hampshire and Alabama, which have not reported data to it.

Earlier, The Washington Post reported on Oct. 28 that more than 39 million Americans had cast early ballots as of Wednesday afternoon, based on the lab's tracker and AP early-vote data.

What researchers say

Axios reported, citing election researchers, unusually strong early participation among Black, Hispanic and unaffiliated voters in several states. Axios said early voting patterns could signal heightened engagement but do not necessarily predict overall turnout or which party benefits.

Axios said about 46 million people voted during the 2022 early voting period.

University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald said overall turnout could surpass 2022. According to Axios, MIT's Charles Stewart was more cautious and said voters may simply be shifting away from Election Day voting. Axios also said Stewart believes turnout could rival 2022.

For voting information, readers should check their state's official election office.

What we don't know yet

• Why the totals differ. AP's count is above 43 million and the lab's is 49.56 million. AP's figures cover 47 states and D.C., and the lab's data lacks New Hampshire and Alabama. The sources we reviewed do not say what accounts for the gap.
• Final turnout. McDonald said it could surpass 2022. Stewart was more cautious, saying some early voting may reflect a shift away from Election Day voting, though Axios said he also believes turnout could rival 2022.
• Which party benefits. AP says party-registration breakdowns do not show how people voted. Axios says early data does not necessarily show which party benefits.